Traditional decision support tools simply publish information or analyze historical data, and to the model user, their logic is a black box. They don't let decision makers really understand the effects of risk and uncertainty on their business nor allow them to review the rationale behind the model. Such a situation creates an environment in which decision making is slow, inconsistent, and fails to develop the trust required to support business actions.

Decision Strategies creates solutions for its clients using advanced decision support tools that circumvent those costly problems.

For very scalable and robust solutions, DSI endorses Analytica* and the Analytica Decision Engine*. Analytica enhances competitive advantage by converting complex data from diverse sources into actionable knowledge. The Analytica Decision Engine enables developers to embed Analytica's powerful computational capabilities in an application or web server. Models developed in Analytica can be published to a network and accessed by any common browser, such as Navigator or Internet Explorer. If needed, only model inputs and outputs are seen by the user. Proprietary model logic is secured from unauthorized access. However, if an audit of the model logic is required, a clear road map of the model structure is revealed by the click of a button. Analytica provides this transparency through the use of influence diagrams, an incredibly powerful way to demonstrate model logic graphically and intuitively. Its simulation power is provided by Monte Carlo engines that drive the analysis of uncertainty for a wide variety of real world situations. Analytica effectively replaces the spreadsheet for the most important of decision problems.

This collage is an example of a decision engine interface, inputs, and outputs. The top left frame is a screen shot of the modular, influence diagram structure of a custom built economic model of a cable-TV system rollout. By double-clicking on the diagram modules, the model user is taken to deeper levels that reveal the actual model logic in graphical form. To the right, the driving decision variables are controlled with input fields and buttons so that a decision-maker can play what-if games easily without navigating a large model, which in this case contained over 2,500 variables. Tabular (the Pro Forma Net Income Sheet) and graphical (the probability mass distribution from one of the Monte Carlo simulations) outputs are created easily and quickly at the touch of a button without the hassle of graphing wizards.

*Analytica is produced and sold by our affiliate organization, Lumina Decision Systems, Inc.