Category Archives: Decision Point

A Need for Bipolar Managers?

by admin | September 18, 2013

I just gave my SPE Distinguished Lecturer presentation for the chapter here in Hanover, Germany. As I mentioned in a previous posting, the brunt of the talk is that companies should be risk neutral when considering the economic metrics of individual projects, and should strive to apply their risk tolerance at the portfolio level. This … Continue reading A Need for Bipolar Managers?

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Unintended Consequences

by admin | September 16, 2013

The onset of winter in Alaska is inevitable; there is no such inevitability when it comes to our past experiences adequately preparing us for an uncertain future. I’ve just wrapped up my first tour as an SPE Distinguished Lecturer. I gave talks in Grand Junction CO, Denver, Minot ND, Anchorage AK, Fairbanks AK, and San … Continue reading Unintended Consequences

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At Least It Isn’t Snowing

by admin | September 14, 2013

I just finished my SPE Distinguished Lecturer presentation here in Denver. Great crowd – even though my talk doesn’t really focus on unconventional plays (which most of the people in this crowd are working on), they were obviously interested. They asked really good questions and came up afterward to talk about various issues. The organizers … Continue reading At Least It Isn’t Snowing

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Where the People are Friendly and the Wind Blows Free

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I’m getting ready to give my SPE Distinguished Lecturer talk tonight here in Minot, ND, where the people are friendly and the wind blows free. Note the pickup-truck-to-car ratio in the photo. I was met at the airport and taken to lunch by Lisa Hokanson and her friend, Beverly. Had a great lunch and terrific … Continue reading Where the People are Friendly and the Wind Blows Free

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No, that’s not the Grand Canyon

by admin | September 10, 2013

No, that’s not the Grand Canyon; it’s the view from near my hotel in Grand Junction. The crowd for my SPE Distinguished Lecturer talk last night was small, but they were engaged and asked good questions. The country here is amazing, especially if you have a geo background. Flying up from Houston, you can almost … Continue reading No, that’s not the Grand Canyon

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Death of a Skill Set

by admin | September 5, 2013

Over the weekend, I attended an excellent production of Arthur Miller’s classic play, Death of a Salesman. It was all the more impressive for the fact that the actor who was to play the lead character, Willy Loman, took ill two weeks ago, and the new actor had only that much time to get up … Continue reading Death of a Skill Set

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Risk Tolerance and Risk Neutrality (You Can Live With More Risk Than You Think)

by admin | September 1, 2013

Next week, I’ll be embarking on my first tour as part of the Society of Petroleum Engineers’ Distinguished Lecturer program. I’ll be doing six tours over a period of six months, each of which involves presenting at between three and five different locations – twenty-four stops in all. Three of the tours are in North … Continue reading Risk Tolerance and Risk Neutrality (You Can Live With More Risk Than You Think)

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Brain vs. Gut: Making Smart Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

by admin | August 30, 2013

In a previous blog, I mentioned Daniel Kahneman’s book, Thinking Fast and Slow. It’s an excellent, in-depth look at how human beings think and make decisions, based on decades of research (much of which was conducted by Kahneman himself with various colleagues). I find this stuff fascinating; in fact, I regularly give a lunch-n-learn talk … Continue reading Brain vs. Gut: Making Smart Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

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Understanding the Other Guy

by admin | August 28, 2013

In the September 15th 2012 issue of The Economist, there was an obituary for Roger Fisher, a professor at Harvard Law School and co-author of the book, Getting to Yes, which was published back in 1981. Dr. Fisher was a globally recognized expert in the art of negotiation. He got Gamal Abdel Nasser to consider … Continue reading Understanding the Other Guy

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Are You a Rational Decision Maker?

by admin | August 26, 2013

Do you consider yourself to be a rational decision maker? Most of us do. We may be willing to admit weaknesses in a variety of areas – maybe we’re impatient, or obsessive-compulsive about trivial things, or maybe we rant at other drivers on the road (not that anyone in my family does that). But when it … Continue reading Are You a Rational Decision Maker?

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